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CCT Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 1:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Night Pulsewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 29 games
41%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 22 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 21 game
57%
Doom
Doomsignature
SSS · 17 games
65%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 17 games
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 16 games
31%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
not me · 16 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
not me · 15 games
13%

Night Pulse

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
JANTER · 16 games
31%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Hduo · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 14 games
36%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 10 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
V-Tune · 9 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
JANTER · 9 games
33%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
JANTER · 9 games
44%
Ursa
Ursasignature
V-Tune · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
478 picks · 416 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
433 picks · 574 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
431 picks · 228 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
423 picks · 539 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 734 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
417 picks · 496 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
367 picks · 586 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
356 picks · 928 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% One Move
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total77% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:35
One Move 35%Night Pulse 65%
The model gave 65% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by One Move in 46:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterWoE
52% · 385 games48% · 195 games
Monkey KingKami
Monkey King
Night Stalker
Night StalkerSSS
61% · 61 game52% · 409 games
TinyWorick
Tiny
Lina
LinaDifference
48% · 134 games43% · 168 games
DawnbreakerDavai
Dawnbreaker
Batrider
Batridernot me
48% · 348 games47% · 233 games
MuertadEsire
Muerta
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magiso bad
51% · 151 game53% · 74 games
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct23:27
One Move 36%Night Pulse 64%
The model gave 64% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 35:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightWoE
50% · 461 game49% · 139 games
LifestealerKami
Lifestealer
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDifference
51% · 277 games55% · 500 games
TinyWorick
Tiny
Mars
MarsSSS
46% · 331 game51% · 424 games
PhoenixDavai
Phoenix
Snapfire
Snapfireso bad
47% · 283 games48% · 334 games
EnchantressKidaro
Enchantress
Lion
Lionnot me
54% · 324 games49% · 279 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct10:31
One Move 36%Night Pulse 64%
The model gave 64% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 23:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightWoE
52% · 281 game43% · 279 games
MorphlingKami
Morphling
Lina
LinaDifference
53% · 105 games46% · 166 games
Earth SpiritWorick
Earth Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSSS
48% · 258 games51% · 142 games
EnigmaDavai
Enigma
Jakiro
Jakiroso bad
45% · 95 games55% · 31 game
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinnot me
61% · 102 games50% · 223 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 77%
Series resultNight Pulse 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3