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European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Passion UAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 23 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 23 games
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 21 game
52%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 21 game
67%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
SSS · 16 games
56%
Doom
Doomsignature
SSS · 16 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
WoE · 16 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Difference · 16 games
63%

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 26 games
54%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 21 game
43%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 20 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 17 games
47%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 17 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 17 games
59%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 17 games
59%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 16 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
501 picks · 680 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
426 picks · 481 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
367 picks · 546 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
358 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
344 picks · 178 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
331 picks · 449 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
323 picks · 655 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
315 picks · 324 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 52%
Hero pool strength55% One Move
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total50% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:16
One Move 51%Passion UA 49%
The model gave 51% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 31:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreWoE
54% · 16 games52% · 275 games
Gyrocopteryowaai
Gyrocopter
Pangolier
PangolierSSS
49% · 338 games45% · 80 games
BroodmotherBatyuk
Broodmother
Void Spirit
Void SpiritDifference
49% · 112 games50% · 196 games
Invokerniche
Invoker
Hoodwink
Hoodwinknot me
55% · 294 games43% · 258 games
LionFernans
Lion
Chen
ChenRein
54% · 102 games54% · 53 games
Ogre Magiflacko
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction missed32:19
One Move 50%Passion UA 50%
The model gave 50% on Passion UA — the game was taken by One Move in 35:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyWoE
52% · 356 games49% · 224 games
Morphlingyowaai
Morphling
Void Spirit
Void SpiritDifference
49% · 138 games49% · 166 games
BeastmasterBatyuk
Beastmaster
Magnus
MagnusSSS
52% · 164 games51% · 177 games
Invokerniche
Invoker
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionRein
57% · 28 games48% · 319 games
RubickFernans
Rubick
Dark Willow
Dark Willownot me
45% · 246 games56% · 46 games
Ogre Magiflacko
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 50%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2