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The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:1
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Project Armorloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 32 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
mellojul · 30 games
73%
Mirana
Miranasignature
sayuw · 28 games
82%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 27 games
70%
Bane
Banesignature
Panto · 22 games
73%
Tiny
Tiny
Smiling Knight · 17 games
53%
Mars
Marssignature
AfterLife · 16 games
94%
Undying
Undying
Panto · 16 games
50%

Project Armor

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
728 picks · 568 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
511 picks · 1030 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
482 picks · 633 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
444 picks · 791 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
374 picks · 413 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
336 picks · 161 bans
49%
Zeus
Zeus
328 picks · 382 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
310 picks · 589 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:28
One Move 89%Project Armor 11%
The model gave 89% on One Move — the game was taken by Project Armor in 39:40.
Game 2prediction correct26:24
One Move 89%Project Armor 11%
The model gave 89% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 49:29.
Game 3prediction correct24:29
One Move 89%Project Armor 11%
The model gave 89% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 51:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 89%
Series resultOne Move 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3