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CCT Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 1:2
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Quantum Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 19 games
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 18 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 18 games
39%
Doom
Doomsignature
SSS · 14 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Rein · 14 games
29%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 13 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
not me · 13 games
85%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
WoE · 13 games
54%

Quantum Team

Luna
Lunaoften banned
bashka · 3 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Somnia · 2 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fezor · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Somnia · 2 games
0%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Rvze · 2 games
0%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Fezor · 2 games
0%
Axe
Axe
kolya_kaBAN68 · 1 game
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Somnia · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
343 picks · 288 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
337 picks · 435 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
323 picks · 251 bans
45%
Enchantress
Enchantress
320 picks · 539 bans
51%
Sand King
Sand King
291 picks · 798 bans
57%
Windranger
Windranger
291 picks · 408 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
289 picks · 470 bans
46%
Rubick
Rubick
289 picks · 272 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:34
One Move 66%Quantum Team 34%
The model gave 66% on One Move — the game was taken by Quantum Team in 51:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageWoE
46% · 30 games46% · 75 games
Medusabashka
Medusa
Primal Beast
Primal BeastDifference
55% · 97 games44% · 29 games
HuskarRvze
Huskar
Razor
RazorSSS
48% · 62 games49% · 107 games
Keeper of the LightSomnia
Keeper of the Light
Enchantress
EnchantressRein
49% · 83 games56% · 133 games
Magnuskolya_kaBAN68
Magnus
Tusk
Tusknot me
53% · 94 games47% · 22 games
Ogre MagiFezor
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct38:15
One Move 69%Quantum Team 31%
The model gave 69% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 34:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingWoE
47% · 122 games59% · 101 game
Shadow Fiendbashka
Shadow Fiend
Pangolier
PangolierDifference
50% · 204 games46% · 81 game
Queen of PainRvze
Queen of Pain
Night Stalker
Night StalkerSSS
41% · 30 games47% · 180 games
Beastmasterkolya_kaBAN68
Beastmaster
Marci
Marcinot me
47% · 67 games51% · 224 games
Dark WillowSomnia
Dark Willow
Clockwerk
ClockwerkRein
59% · 178 games40% · 15 games
Ogre MagiFezor
Ogre Magi
Game 3prediction missed17:42
One Move 69%Quantum Team 31%
The model gave 69% on One Move — the game was taken by Quantum Team in 38:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaWoE
55% · 230 games46% · 249 games
Morphlingbashka
Morphling
Mars
MarsSSS
53% · 215 games40% · 83 games
Earth SpiritRvze
Earth Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KingDifference
57% · 114 games50% · 120 games
Magnuskolya_kaBAN68
Magnus
Dark Willow
Dark Willownot me
51% · 203 games46% · 190 games
SnapfireSomnia
Snapfire
Marci
MarciRein
54% · 114 games47% · 234 games
ClockwerkFezor
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 82%
Series resultQuantum Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3