CCT Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:1series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Quantum Teamloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 31 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 25 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 22 games
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 21 game
Muerta
not me · 21 game
Marcisignature
not me · 19 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
SSS · 19 games
Batrideroften banned
not me · 18 games
Quantum Team
Phoenixoften banned
Fezor · 13 games
Tinyoften banned
Rvze · 12 games
Magnusoften banned
Rvze · 11 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
bashka · 11 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rvze · 11 games
Tidehunteroften banned
takizawa · 11 games
Morphlingoften banned
bashka · 10 games
Batrideroften banned
kolya_kaBAN68 · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
568 picks · 793 bans
Muerta
451 picks · 328 bans
Phoenix
442 picks · 693 bans
Phantom Assassin
422 picks · 767 bans
Clockwerk
409 picks · 392 bans
Bristleback
404 picks · 886 bans
Magnus
394 picks · 1079 bans
Pangolier
391 picks · 534 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 32%
Hero pool strength55% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total77% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:11
One Move 66%Quantum Team 34%
The model gave 66% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 27:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinEyesight
TerrorbladeLukas
Primal BeastChodΣX
Queen of PainRvze
Monkey KingDifference
TidehunterAnkou
SilencerBb3px
WarlockFezor
MarciGilgir
Bounty Hunterkolya_kaBAN68
Game 2prediction missed19:47
One Move 64%Quantum Team 36%
The model gave 64% on One Move — the game was taken by Quantum Team in 42:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaEyesight
Dragon KnightLukas
BristlebackChodΣX
ViperAnkou
TinyDifference
Primal BeastRvze
MuertaGilgir
Bounty Hunterkolya_kaBAN68
JakiroBb3px
Ancient ApparitionFezor
Game 3prediction correct44:14
One Move 62%Quantum Team 38%
The model gave 62% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 34:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackEyesight
LifestealerLukas
Storm SpiritDifference
EnigmaAnkou
UnderlordChodΣX
Primal BeastRvze
ClockwerkGilgir
Gyrocopterkolya_kaBAN68
JakiroBb3px
Ancient ApparitionFezor
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 77%
Series resultOne Move 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3