CCT Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:1series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SIBE Teamloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 11 games
Hoodwink
queezy · 11 games
Crystal Maiden
Rein · 9 games
Marsoften banned
SSS · 9 games
Pangolieroften banned
xn丶e · 9 games
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 9 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Rein · 8 games
Leshracsignature
xn丶e · 8 games
SIBE Team
Rubick
sunset · 31 game
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 24 games
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 16 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
SOhY · 15 games
Dark Willowoften banned
sunset · 14 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
ряф^^ · 14 games
Batrideroften banned
ряф^^ · 13 games
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
402 picks · 615 bans
Gyrocopter
350 picks · 373 bans
Crystal Maiden
341 picks · 129 bans
Centaur Warrunner
335 picks · 443 bans
Dark Willow
319 picks · 353 bans
Clockwerk
312 picks · 416 bans
Rubick
311 picks · 160 bans
Dragon Knight
310 picks · 555 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 51%
Hero pool strength52% SIBE Team
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total61% SIBE Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:14
One Move 43%SIBE Team 57%
The model gave 57% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by One Move in 32:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterSSS
Weaverrincyq
SvenWoE
Void SpiritMirele
Invokerxn丶e
Shadow Demonряф^^
JakiroRein
Elder TitanSOhY
Game 2prediction correct15:35
One Move 47%SIBE Team 53%
The model gave 53% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 43:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaWoE
Ursarincyq
PangolierSSS
LeshracMirele
Storm Spiritxn丶e
Rubickряф^^
Elder TitanRein
Crystal MaidenSOhY
Game 3prediction missed
One Move 39%SIBE Team 61%
The model gave 61% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by One Move.
Model check result
Model favoriteSIBE Team · 61%
Series resultOne Move 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3