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RES Regional Series: EU #3 · BO2
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 1:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:1
SIBE Teamloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 12 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 12 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 12 games
33%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Rein · 9 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Rein · 9 games
56%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
xn丶e · 9 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SSS · 9 games
22%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 9 games
56%

SIBE Team

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 33 games
39%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 25 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
sunset · 17 games
41%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 17 games
29%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
SOhY · 15 games
47%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
ряф^^ · 15 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
sunset · 13 games
31%
Puck
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
384 picks · 655 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
319 picks · 367 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
316 picks · 448 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
313 picks · 350 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
305 picks · 571 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
299 picks · 183 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
292 picks · 201 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
282 picks · 376 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% SIBE Team
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total58% SIBE Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:20
One Move 45%SIBE Team 55%
The model gave 55% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by One Move in 42:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSquad1x
50% · 32 games56% · 87 games
Windrangerselfhate
Windranger
Clinkz
ClinkzWoE
56% · 27 games47% · 23 games
Earthshakersunset
Earthshaker
Mars
MarsSSS
47% · 103 games45% · 108 games
PhoenixSOhY
Phoenix
Elder Titan
Elder TitanRein
49% · 56 games
Game 2prediction correct32:40
One Move 47%SIBE Team 53%
The model gave 53% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 47:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinySquad1x
50% · 249 games54% · 111 games
Magnusselfhate
Magnus
Sven
SvenWoE
44% · 126 games47% · 161 game
PhoenixSOhY
Phoenix
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSSS
59% · 168 games48% · 309 games
Rubicksunset
Rubick
Jakiro
JakiroRein
48% · 38 games
Model check result
Model favoriteSIBE Team · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2