RES Regional Series: EU #2 · BO2
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 1:1series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Spider Pigzsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Hoodwink
queezy · 10 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 8 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Rein · 8 games
Marsoften banned
SSS · 8 games
Tinyoften banned
Wein · 7 games
Leshracoften banned
xn丶e · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 6 games
Phoenix
Panto · 6 games
Spider Pigzs
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
480 picks · 210 bans
Tiny
442 picks · 607 bans
Batrider
397 picks · 739 bans
Rubick
382 picks · 155 bans
Centaur Warrunner
381 picks · 532 bans
Gyrocopter
366 picks · 311 bans
Pangolier
347 picks · 708 bans
Mars
330 picks · 543 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Spider Pigzs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Spider Pigzs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:48
One Move 43%Spider Pigzs 57%
The model gave 57% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by One Move in 44:40.
Game 2prediction correct35:45
One Move 43%Spider Pigzs 57%
The model gave 57% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 49:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpider Pigzs · 57%
Accuracy by game1 of 2