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DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team NextUpwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 10 games
30%
Legion Commander
Legion Commandersignature
AfterLife · 9 games
89%
Rubick
Rubick
Panto · 9 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Gilgir · 8 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 8 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
AfterLife · 7 games
43%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Munkushi~ · 7 games
43%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 6 games
50%

Team NextUp

Juggernaut
Juggernaut
7jesu · 3 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Petushara · 2 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 2 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
forcemajor · 1 game
100%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Petushara · 1 game
0%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
jesv · 1 game
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Petushara · 1 game
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
forcemajor · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
269 picks · 445 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
244 picks · 387 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
237 picks · 319 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
216 picks · 102 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
215 picks · 203 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
194 picks · 368 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
192 picks · 482 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% Team NextUp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:29
One Move 53%Team NextUp 47%
The model gave 53% on One Move — the game was taken by Team NextUp in 26:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 53%
Series resultTeam NextUp 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1