BetBoom Xmas Show · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Tiny
sayuw · 20 games
Mirana
Gilgir · 14 games
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 14 games
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 13 games
Chensignature
Panto · 11 games
Hoodwink
sayuw · 10 games
Marcisignature
sayuw · 10 games
Queen of Painsignature
mellojul · 10 games
Team Spirit
Tinysignature
Mira · 22 games
Rubicksignature
Mira · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 14 games
Clockwerk
Miposhka · 13 games
Marcioften banned
Mira · 12 games
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 12 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Miposhka · 11 games
Pangoliersignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
343 picks · 307 bans
Tusk
280 picks · 259 bans
Marci
273 picks · 522 bans
Undying
252 picks · 452 bans
Pangolier
236 picks · 512 bans
Primal Beast
221 picks · 556 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 320 bans
Crystal Maiden
204 picks · 116 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 27%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total77% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:21
One Move 34%Team Spirit 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 24:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomMunkushi~
SlarkYatoro
LycanAfterLife
PangolierLarl
TuskAinkrad
BeastmasterCollapse
SnapfireGilgir
RubickMiposhka
MiranaPanto
RikiMira
Game 2prediction correct21:53
One Move 35%Team Spirit 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 36:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
LifestealerYatoro
Primal BeastAinkrad
ZeusLarl
BroodmotherAfterLife
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
SilencerGilgir
Crystal MaidenMiposhka
GyrocopterPanto
RubickMira
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 77%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2