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European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Tickleswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 9 games
22%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 9 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
AfterLife · 7 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Ainkrad · 7 games
29%
Rubick
Rubick
Xakoda · 7 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 6 games
33%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Munkushi~ · 6 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Panto · 6 games
33%

Team Tickles

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 27 games
70%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 25 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 24 games
71%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ulnit · 16 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Dukalis · 15 games
40%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
NARMAN · 15 games
53%
Luna
Luna
Ulnit · 14 games
43%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Force · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
356 picks · 540 bans
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
307 picks · 229 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
306 picks · 444 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
301 picks · 267 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
270 picks · 425 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
267 picks · 762 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
266 picks · 458 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
262 picks · 383 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 60%
Hero pool strength61% Team Tickles
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:26
One Move 31%Team Tickles 69%
The model gave 69% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 36:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerSSS
48% · 32 games54% · 153 games
TerrorbladeUlnit
Terrorblade
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightchempik
50% · 118 games44% · 150 games
TimbersawLorenof
Timbersaw
Batrider
Batriderqueezy
51% · 392 games51% · 146 games
MagnusForce
Magnus
Silencer
SilencerXakoda
53% · 267 games50% · 228 games
TechiesImmersion
Techies
46% · 132 games
Shadow DemonNARMAN
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct13:28
One Move 31%Team Tickles 69%
The model gave 69% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 23:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Omniknight
OmniknightSSS
64% · 17 games61% · 64 games
MedusaUlnit
Medusa
Magnus
Magnuschempik
50% · 277 games47% · 96 games
Centaur WarrunnerForce
Centaur Warrunner
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkqueezy
46% · 169 games42% · 194 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Disruptor
DisruptorXakoda
54% · 251 game48% · 166 games
Nature's ProphetNARMAN
Nature's Prophet
51% · 194 games
TechiesImmersion
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 81%
Series resultTeam Tickles 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2