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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
UALEIKUMNIHAOloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Tiny
Tiny
Gilgir · 22 games
45%
Mirana
Mirana
Gilgir · 17 games
47%
Rubick
Rubick
Gilgir · 17 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 15 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
Ainkrad · 13 games
38%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 12 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Panto · 11 games
45%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
55%

UALEIKUMNIHAO

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Shergarat · 13 games
62%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
b1kA · 11 games
82%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Mary_y · 8 games
75%
Doom
Doomsignature
Shergarat · 8 games
63%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Shergarat · 8 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Palantimos · 8 games
75%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mary_y · 8 games
63%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Palantimos · 6 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
787 picks · 587 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
545 picks · 438 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 383 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
421 picks · 703 bans
55%
Undying
Undying
413 picks · 592 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
411 picks · 963 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
395 picks · 295 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
392 picks · 902 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 78%
Hero pool strength59% UALEIKUMNIHAO
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:10
One Move 54%UALEIKUMNIHAO 46%
The model gave 54% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 35:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightMunkushi~
58% · 99 games52% · 188 games
TerrorbladePalantimos
Terrorblade
Tinker
TinkerAinkrad
35% · 15 games41% · 66 games
Queen of PainChira JUNIOR
Queen of Pain
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAfterLife
51% · 277 games44% · 108 games
TidehunterShergarat
Tidehunter
Mirana
MiranaGilgir
57% · 206 games50% · 70 games
PugnaMary_y
Pugna
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPanto
43% · 156 games55% · 321 game
Clockwerkb1kA
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct37:13
One Move 52%UALEIKUMNIHAO 48%
The model gave 52% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 40:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawAinkrad
52% · 110 games53% · 118 games
AlchemistPalantimos
Alchemist
Doom
DoomAfterLife
50% · 187 games48% · 158 games
EnigmaShergarat
Enigma
Slark
SlarkMunkushi~
51% · 102 games56% · 118 games
UnderlordChira JUNIOR
Underlord
Mirana
MiranaGilgir
49% · 188 games44% · 257 games
Undyingb1kA
Undying
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPanto
50% · 176 games48% · 112 games
JakiroMary_y
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 58%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2