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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Bane
Banesignature
Panto · 33 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
sayuw · 29 games
79%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 27 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
mellojul · 27 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 26 games
62%
Mars
Marssignature
AfterLife · 20 games
85%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 19 games
74%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
sayuw · 16 games
69%

Virtus.pro

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 13 games
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 12 games
67%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
gpK~ · 12 games
42%
Bane
Banesignature
Xakoda · 11 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 11 games
91%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
1ls · 9 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
DM · 9 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
yamich · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
469 picks · 651 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
464 picks · 440 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
448 picks · 274 bans
57%
Sand King
Sand King
412 picks · 562 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
405 picks · 485 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
400 picks · 652 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
366 picks · 561 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
340 picks · 295 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:28
One Move 33%Virtus.pro 67%
The model gave 67% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 27:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSmiling Knight
52% · 200 games49% · 51 game
Nature's ProphetRAMZES666
Nature's Prophet
Sand King
Sand Kingmellojul
55% · 239 games49% · 128 games
KunkkagpK~
Kunkka
Viper
ViperAfterLife
49% · 104 games42% · 213 games
Dragon KnightDM
Dragon Knight
Enchantress
EnchantressPanto
49% · 182 games49% · 81 game
Skywrath Mageyamich
Skywrath Mage
Marci
Marcisayuw
little data54% · 252 games
BaneXakoda
Bane
Game 2prediction correct12:29
One Move 35%Virtus.pro 65%
The model gave 65% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 25:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linamellojul
45% · 276 games62% · 200 games
Templar AssassingpK~
Templar Assassin
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerSmiling Knight
53% · 131 game55% · 182 games
Wraith KingRAMZES666
Wraith King
Doom
DoomAfterLife
43% · 128 games39% · 122 games
TimbersawDM
Timbersaw
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsayuw
46% · 141 game57% · 199 games
Miranayamich
Mirana
Grimstroke
GrimstrokePanto
43% · 351 game57% · 324 games
BaneXakoda
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 79%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2