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CCT Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 1:0
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Virtus.proloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 27 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Difference · 24 games
29%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Eyesight · 22 games
36%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 21 game
43%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 20 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 20 games
25%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Bb3px · 18 games
28%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Bb3px · 18 games
44%

Virtus.pro

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 20 games
60%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Daxak · 19 games
63%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Daxak · 16 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
prblms · 15 games
73%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 15 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Daxak · 14 games
79%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Rein · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
562 picks · 619 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
481 picks · 241 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
459 picks · 431 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
392 picks · 823 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
363 picks · 548 bans
51%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
358 picks · 819 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
357 picks · 321 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
354 picks · 410 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 63%
Hero pool strength60% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total74% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
One Move 26%Virtus.pro 74%
The model gave 74% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by One Move.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 74%
Series resultOne Move 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1