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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 20 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Eyesight · 19 games
37%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ChodΣX · 18 games
56%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
29%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Bb3px · 17 games
47%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Difference · 16 games
31%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 15 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Gilgir · 14 games
64%

Wildcard Gaming

Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Bignum · 24 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 23 games
35%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 21 game
48%
Puck
Pucksignature
RCY · 21 game
62%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
YamSun · 20 games
45%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Speeed · 19 games
58%
Chen
Chensignature
Speeed · 18 games
78%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
507 picks · 545 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 424 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
357 picks · 371 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
341 picks · 510 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
322 picks · 702 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
307 picks · 554 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
305 picks · 195 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
296 picks · 437 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 54%
Hero pool strength55% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total50% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:32
One Move 47%Wildcard Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 37:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKiritych
46% · 274 games50% · 358 games
BeastmasterFayde
Beastmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDifference
44% · 303 games50% · 143 games
Shadow FiendYamSun
Shadow Fiend
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerlaise
44% · 132 games48% · 257 games
Ember SpiritRCY
Ember Spirit
Undying
UndyingFishman
49% · 76 games61% · 118 games
ChenSpeeed
Chen
Lion
Lionsayuw
53% · 158 games56% · 67 games
BaneBignum
Bane
Game 2prediction correct20:42
One Move 50%Wildcard Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 43:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaKiritych
44% · 71 game48% · 127 games
Shadow FiendRCY
Shadow Fiend
Axe
Axelaise
43% · 70 games51% · 124 games
AbaddonYamSun
Abaddon
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDifference
50% · 164 games61% · 112 games
EnigmaFayde
Enigma
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanFishman
49% · 150 games50% · 92 games
UndyingSpeeed
Undying
Marci
Marcisayuw
49% · 100 games52% · 100 games
LionBignum
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 50%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2