PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 29 games
Marcisignature
not me · 23 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 22 games
Batrideroften banned
not me · 17 games
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 17 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 17 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
SSS · 17 games
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 16 games
Yellow Submarine
Batrideroften banned
mrls · 11 games
Muertasignature
mrls · 7 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Htrd · 6 games
Lion
mrls · 6 games
Tinysignature
re1bl · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 5 games
Lich
Htrd · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
518 picks · 692 bans
Clockwerk
481 picks · 559 bans
Batrider
476 picks · 601 bans
Muerta
475 picks · 406 bans
Tiny
456 picks · 558 bans
Gyrocopter
436 picks · 797 bans
Magnus
432 picks · 952 bans
Lion
397 picks · 231 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% One Move
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total64% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:3
One Move 55%Yellow Submarine 45%
The model gave 55% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 18:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanSSS
Tidehunterififall
AbaddonWoE
Tinyre1bl
Ember SpiritDifference
Phantom Assassinnesfeer
Dark Willownot me
EnchantressHtrd
LichRein
Nyx Assassinmrls
Game 2prediction missed38:38
One Move 56%Yellow Submarine 44%
The model gave 56% on One Move — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 53:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonWoE
Terrorbladenesfeer
Ember SpiritDifference
Beastmasterififall
VenomancerRein
Tinyre1bl
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
ZeusHtrd
Batridernot me
Nyx Assassinmrls
Game 3prediction correct46:32
One Move 58%Yellow Submarine 42%
The model gave 58% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 45:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightWoE
Tinyre1bl
Ember SpiritDifference
Morphlingnesfeer
Night StalkerSSS
Dawnbreakerififall
LichRein
ZeusHtrd
Techiesnot me
Nyx Assassinmrls
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 64%
Series resultOne Move 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3