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European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Difference · 20 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 15 games
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Rein · 14 games
79%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Rein · 14 games
29%
Marci
Marci
not me · 14 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
not me · 14 games
79%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
SSS · 13 games
46%

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 4 games
75%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
MikSa` · 3 games
67%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
LeBronDota · 3 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
LeBronDota · 2 games
100%
Batrider
Batrider
Thiolicor · 2 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 2 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 2 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
447 picks · 593 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
384 picks · 405 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
332 picks · 471 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
328 picks · 397 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
309 picks · 596 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
294 picks · 158 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
286 picks · 339 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
268 picks · 788 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 69%
Hero pool strength53% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:21
One Move 46%Zero Tenacity 54%
The model gave 54% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by One Move in 47:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenWoE
51% · 214 games44% · 295 games
MorphlingDaaD-
Morphling
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSSS
51% · 124 games58% · 278 games
Primal BeastMikSa`
Primal Beast
Puck
PuckDifference
49% · 349 games46% · 129 games
Void SpiritStojkov
Void Spirit
Pugna
PugnaRein
56% · 188 games52% · 292 games
Shadow DemonThiolicor
Shadow Demon
Hoodwink
Hoodwinknot me
47% · 368 games45% · 249 games
TuskLeBronDota
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed44:13
One Move 45%Zero Tenacity 55%
The model gave 55% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by One Move in 33:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehunter
TidehunterSSS
54% · 72 games50% · 117 games
Nature's ProphetDaaD-
Nature's Prophet
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightWoE
54% · 254 games46% · 93 games
LinaStojkov
Lina
Tinker
TinkerRein
45% · 26 games48% · 55 games
DawnbreakerMikSa`
Dawnbreaker
Monkey King
Monkey KingDifference
53% · 106 games56% · 105 games
Naga SirenLeBronDota
Naga Siren
Muerta
Muertanot me
47% · 117 games45% · 205 games
BatriderThiolicor
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 57%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2