European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 25 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 23 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 21 game
Marcisignature
not me · 21 game
Alchemistoften banned
SSS · 16 games
Dark Willow
not me · 16 games
Doomsignature
SSS · 16 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
WoE · 16 games
Zero Tenacity
Dark Willow
jAMES · 11 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 10 games
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 9 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 7 games
Lion
Thiolicor · 7 games
Sand Kingoften banned
MikSa` · 7 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Stojkov · 7 games
Tuskoften banned
LeBronDota · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
506 picks · 685 bans
Clockwerk
428 picks · 488 bans
Pangolier
369 picks · 533 bans
Luna
356 picks · 457 bans
Dark Willow
351 picks · 180 bans
Dragon Knight
330 picks · 486 bans
Enchantress
327 picks · 635 bans
Batrider
317 picks · 328 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% One Move
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:31
One Move 61%Zero Tenacity 39%
The model gave 61% on One Move — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 30:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendWoE
LinaStojkov
DoomSSS
AlchemistDaaD-
Ember SpiritDifference
BristlebackNefrit
ChenRein
RubickjAMES
47% · 31 game
UndyingLeBronDota
Game 2prediction missed24:46
One Move 62%Zero Tenacity 38%
The model gave 62% on One Move — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 45:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingWoE
LinaStojkov
DoomSSS
RazorDaaD-
Monkey KingDifference
EnigmaNefrit
PugnaRein
Dark WillowjAMES
43% · 213 games
TuskLeBronDota
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 66%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2