Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Online Kingdomloss 0:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
team surpluswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Online Kingdom
No games played over 6 months.
team surplus
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
344 picks · 275 bans
Marci
289 picks · 536 bans
Tusk
277 picks · 232 bans
Undying
264 picks · 451 bans
Pangolier
242 picks · 478 bans
Primal Beast
226 picks · 531 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 315 bans
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 117 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% Online Kingdom
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Online Kingdom
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:10
Online Kingdom 58%team surplus 42%
The model gave 58% on Online Kingdom — the game was taken by team surplus in 21:30.
Game 2prediction missed38:18
Online Kingdom 58%team surplus 42%
The model gave 58% on Online Kingdom — the game was taken by team surplus in 27:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteOnline Kingdom · 58%
Series resultteam surplus 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2