Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionO+Orrai + 4win 2:0
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Midas Clubloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Orrai + 4
Axeoften banned
SmAsH · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
SmAsH · 1 game
Clockwerk
Yadomi · 1 game
Dazzleoften banned
SmAsH · 1 game
Disruptoroften banned
Yadomi · 1 game
Grimstroke
Yadomi · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
TaiLung · 1 game
Slardaroften banned
TaiLung · 1 game
Midas Club
Crystal Maidensignature
Wij · 10 games
Techies
Hyko · 9 games
Disruptoroften banned
Wij · 5 games
Chenoften banned
Hyko · 4 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
4dr · 4 games
Gyrocopter
Costabile · 4 games
Marsoften banned
4dr · 4 games
Medusaoften banned
Costabile · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
484 picks · 222 bans
Tiny
441 picks · 693 bans
Centaur Warrunner
429 picks · 609 bans
Gyrocopter
423 picks · 385 bans
Batrider
413 picks · 746 bans
Rubick
384 picks · 161 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 751 bans
Dragon Knight
347 picks · 1030 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 61%
Hero pool strength50% Midas Club
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Midas Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:17
Orrai + 4 37%Midas Club 63%
The model gave 63% on Midas Club — the game was taken by Orrai + 4 in 35:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ZeusTaiLung
TinyCostabile
Centaur WarrunnerSmAsH
Sand King4dr
ClockwerkYadomi
SlardarFCR
44% · 31 game
Shadow ShamanHyko
58% · 74 games
DisruptorKingrd
Game 2prediction missed26:7
Orrai + 4 37%Midas Club 63%
The model gave 63% on Midas Club — the game was taken by Orrai + 4 in 30:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DazzleTaiLung
Chaos KnightCostabile
Centaur WarrunnerSmAsH
BrewmasterFCR
ClockwerkYadomi
Slardar4dr
45% · 112 games
PhoenixKingrd
41% · 30 games
Shadow ShamanHyko
Model check result
Model favoriteMidas Club · 75%
Series resultOrrai + 4 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2