Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
outsidersloss 0:1series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Empire Hopewin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
outsiders
No games played over 6 months.
Team Empire Hope
Pudgesignature
krylat · 12 games
Iosignature
antoha · 9 games
Vipersignature
Mastery · 8 games
Timbersawsignature
pJonn · 6 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
antoha · 6 games
Dazzle
antoha · 5 games
Razoroften banned
Mastery · 5 games
Visageoften banned
pJonn · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
354 picks · 244 bans
Marci
323 picks · 560 bans
Undying
286 picks · 475 bans
Tusk
272 picks · 180 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 422 bans
Primal Beast
239 picks · 502 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 287 bans
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 100 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength56% Team Empire Hope
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Team Empire Hope
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:18
outsiders 37%Team Empire Hope 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Empire Hope — the game was taken by Team Empire Hope in 26:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire Hope · 63%
Series resultTeam Empire Hope 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1