oveA vs potn9ki — prediction DS3ОО · Dota 2

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DreamLeague Season 30. Открытые отборочные · BO3

result vs prediction

oveAloss 0:2

series probability

57%43%

probability at match start · final 0:2

potn9kiwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

oveA

No games played over 6 months.

potn9ki

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

519 picks · 316 bans

50%

Dark Willow

438 picks · 214 bans

51%

Mirana

391 picks · 177 bans

52%

Winter Wyvern

341 picks · 307 bans

58%

Ember Spirit

326 picks · 504 bans

56%

Centaur Warrunner

301 picks · 291 bans

54%

Earth Spirit

281 picks · 513 bans

53%

Windranger

279 picks · 133 bans

51%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% oveA

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total57% oveA

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed18:39

oveA 54%potn9ki 46%

The model gave 54% on oveA — the game was taken by potn9ki in 35:07.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo