PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Pacific esportswin 2:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
GGantzloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pacific esports
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mingatte · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Mingatte · 1 game
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Mingatte · 1 game
Gantz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
419 picks · 680 bans
Mars
396 picks · 637 bans
Lion
392 picks · 360 bans
Techies
392 picks · 320 bans
Batrider
377 picks · 831 bans
Tiny
376 picks · 455 bans
Vengeful Spirit
357 picks · 358 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 588 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Gantz
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Pacific esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:37
Pacific esports 56%Gantz 44%
The model gave 56% on Pacific esports — the game was taken by Pacific esports in 33:54.
Game 2prediction missed32:42
Pacific esports 56%Gantz 44%
The model gave 56% on Pacific esports — the game was taken by Gantz in 54:18.
Game 3prediction correct35:24
Pacific esports 56%Gantz 44%
The model gave 56% on Pacific esports — the game was taken by Pacific esports in 44:04.
Model check result
Model favoritePacific esports · 56%
Series resultPacific esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3