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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Pacific esportswin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Penguins Squadloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Pacific esports

No games played over 6 months.

Penguins Squad

Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Crawler · 6 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Ifrit · 5 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Rabish · 4 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Satoshi- · 4 games
25%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Ifrit · 4 games
25%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Ifrit · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
Crawler · 3 games
0%
Silencer
Silencer
Ifrit · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
752 picks · 605 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
551 picks · 469 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
423 picks · 1000 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
408 picks · 375 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 945 bans
51%
Doom
Doom
391 picks · 611 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
387 picks · 603 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
383 picks · 205 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% Pacific esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Penguins Squad
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:32
Pacific esports 42%Penguins Squad 58%
The model gave 58% on Penguins Squad — the game was taken by Penguins Squad in 45:52.
Game 2prediction missed24:45
Pacific esports 42%Penguins Squad 58%
The model gave 58% on Penguins Squad — the game was taken by Pacific esports in 38:43.
Game 3prediction missed56:25
Pacific esports 42%Penguins Squad 58%
The model gave 58% on Penguins Squad — the game was taken by Pacific esports in 49:08.
Model check result
Model favoritePenguins Squad · 58%
Series resultPacific esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3