DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
paiN Gamingloss 1:1series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:1
OGloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
paiN Gaming
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Frank · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 1 game
Jakirooften banned
Elmisho · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
Parker · 1 game
Largooften banned
Frank · 1 game
Marcioften banned
Elmisho · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Frank · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
Parker · 1 game
OG
Snapfire
Daze · 31 game
Shadow Demonsignature
Tims · 26 games
Jakirooften banned
Skem · 25 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Yopaj · 23 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 22 games
Marssignature
Force · 21 game
Axeoften banned
Force · 20 games
Beastmasteroften banned
MikSa` · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
622 picks · 960 bans
Tusk
512 picks · 432 bans
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 627 bans
Shadow Demon
436 picks · 988 bans
Tiny
429 picks · 468 bans
Dragon Knight
422 picks · 513 bans
Warlock
417 picks · 260 bans
Mars
394 picks · 548 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 59%
Hero pool strength57% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
paiN Gaming 36%OG 64%
The model gave 64% on OG — the game was taken by OG.
Game 2prediction missed35:8
paiN Gaming 43%OG 57%
The model gave 57% on OG — the game was taken by paiN Gaming in 35:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerSmiling Knight
MorphlingNatsumi
Ember SpiritDarkMago
Queen of PainYopaj
SlardarFrank
Centaur WarrunnerForce
BatriderElmisho
ClockwerkTims
WindrangerScofield
JakiroSkem
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 64%
Accuracy by game1 of 2