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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
paiN Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Falconsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

paiN Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 8 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Elmisho · 8 games
38%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 8 games
38%
Luna
Luna
Wits · 7 games
43%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Elmisho · 7 games
43%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Elmisho · 7 games
43%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
DarkMago · 6 games
50%
Razor
Razoroften banned
DarkMago · 6 games
33%

Team Falcons

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 32 games
66%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 30 games
63%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 30 games
73%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 29 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 28 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 28 games
64%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 20 games
70%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 20 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
684 picks · 840 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
591 picks · 610 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
490 picks · 422 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
485 picks · 336 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
423 picks · 1104 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
404 picks · 1025 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 697 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 625 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:12
paiN Gaming 43%Team Falcons 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by paiN Gaming in 41:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWits
47% · 269 games53% · 204 games
Void SpiritMalr1ne
Void Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainDarkMago
41% · 303 games50% · 321 game
AbaddonSkiter
Abaddon
Undying
UndyingFrank
54% · 149 games48% · 306 games
MarsATF
Mars
Batrider
BatriderElmisho
48% · 321 game53% · 245 games
Shadow DemonCr1t-
Shadow Demon
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinScofield
54% · 78 games56% · 44 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct13:37
paiN Gaming 42%Team Falcons 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 36:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDarkMago
59% · 463 games47% · 293 games
UrsaSkiter
Ursa
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendWits
57% · 282 games42% · 234 games
Void SpiritATF
Void Spirit
Bristleback
BristlebackFrank
54% · 382 games51% · 244 games
Sand KingMalr1ne
Sand King
Tiny
TinyScofield
51% · 639 games45% · 708 games
JakiroSneyking
Jakiro
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageElmisho
46% · 160 games49% · 447 games
Shadow ShamanCr1t-
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2