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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
paiN Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
6%94%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Yandexloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

paiN Gaming

Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Frank · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 2 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Elmisho · 2 games
0%
Lifestealer
Lifestealer
Smiling Knight · 2 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 2 games
0%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Parker · 2 games
0%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Elmisho · 2 games
0%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 2 games
0%

Team Yandex

Tusk
Tusksignature
Malady · 33 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 32 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Saksa · 26 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 22 games
82%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 21 game
67%
Axe
Axesignature
Noticed · 20 games
70%
Mars
Marssignature
Noticed · 20 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
635 picks · 985 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
524 picks · 441 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
461 picks · 633 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
439 picks · 1027 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
437 picks · 478 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
436 picks · 268 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
422 picks · 513 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
418 picks · 567 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)22% vs 57%
Hero pool strength65% Team Yandex
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:25
paiN Gaming 18%Team Yandex 82%
The model gave 82% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by paiN Gaming in 45:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSmiling Knight
48% · 389 games53% · 481 game
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
Storm Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainDarkMago
45% · 325 games51% · 295 games
WindrangerWatson
Windranger
Enigma
EnigmaFrank
54% · 109 games48% · 231 game
AxeNoticed
Axe
Jakiro
JakiroElmisho
49% · 591 game52% · 356 games
BatriderSaksa
Batrider
Clockwerk
ClockwerkScofield
47% · 145 games54% · 196 games
DazzleMalady
Dazzle
Game 2prediction missed18:21
paiN Gaming 17%Team Yandex 83%
The model gave 83% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by paiN Gaming in 46:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSmiling Knight
50% · 218 games53% · 260 games
UrsaWatson
Ursa
Underlord
UnderlordFrank
46% · 183 games48% · 408 games
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
Storm Spirit
Razor
RazorDarkMago
53% · 90 games51% · 369 games
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonElmisho
47% · 337 games59% · 212 games
ChenMalady
Chen
Tusk
TuskScofield
44% · 528 games49% · 107 games
Keeper of the LightSaksa
Keeper of the Light
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 94%
Series resultpaiN Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2