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CCT Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Palianytsialoss 0:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Dragon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Palianytsia

Luna
Lunasignature
Crystallize · 12 games
83%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
QBFY · 12 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
QBFY · 10 games
70%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Moonlight · 9 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
fortniteMan · 8 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
QBFY · 8 games
63%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
kreker · 7 games
43%
Omniknight
Omniknightsignature
kreker · 7 games
86%

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 16 games
44%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
paw · 13 games
8%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
paw · 11 games
36%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Norma · 10 games
40%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 10 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Mary_y · 10 games
60%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 9 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Pangolier
Pangolier
334 picks · 433 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
327 picks · 262 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
307 picks · 547 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
294 picks · 237 bans
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
293 picks · 248 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
286 picks · 462 bans
46%
Tusk
Tusk
285 picks · 387 bans
54%
Windranger
Windranger
277 picks · 401 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 40%
Hero pool strength63% Palianytsia
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% Palianytsia
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:32
Palianytsia 58%Dragon Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Palianytsia — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 38:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendCrystallize
51% · 95 games56% · 208 games
Lunalil pleb
Luna
Sand King
Sand KingMoonlight
56% · 104 games52% · 163 games
BeastmasterInfernal
Beastmaster
Timbersaw
TimbersawfortniteMan
50% · 280 games36% · 54 games
Earth Spiritdualrazee
Earth Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireQBFY
50% · 189 games47% · 183 games
Gyrocopterxsvampire
Gyrocopter
Alchemist
Alchemistkreker
53% · 152 games45% · 212 games
EnchantressMary_y
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed10:19
Palianytsia 56%Dragon Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Palianytsia — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 23:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaCrystallize
48% · 272 games50% · 289 games
Morphlinglil pleb
Morphling
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMoonlight
54% · 185 games46% · 429 games
Pangolierdualrazee
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerfortniteMan
50% · 336 games48% · 136 games
EnigmaInfernal
Enigma
Jakiro
Jakirokreker
48% · 151 game54% · 161 game
Naga SirenMary_y
Naga Siren
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
49% · 199 games52% · 128 games
Marcixsvampire
Marci
Model check result
Model favoritePalianytsia · 61%
Series resultDragon Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2