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CCT Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Palianytsialoss 0:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Dragon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Palianytsia

Luna
Lunasignature
Crystallize · 18 games
61%
Leshrac
Leshrac
QBFY · 16 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Moonlight · 16 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfire
QBFY · 16 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 13 games
38%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
kreker · 12 games
25%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
fortniteMan · 11 games
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
kreker · 11 games
36%

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 26 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 19 games
58%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 19 games
26%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 19 games
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
paw · 16 games
63%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
lil pleb · 14 games
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
lil pleb · 14 games
36%
Puck
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 13 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
477 picks · 652 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
412 picks · 455 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 517 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
348 picks · 435 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
320 picks · 644 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
319 picks · 171 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
317 picks · 389 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
292 picks · 302 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% Dragon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total54% Palianytsia
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:35
Palianytsia 51%Dragon Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Palianytsia — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 39:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMoonlight
53% · 233 games54% · 325 games
Dragon Knightlil pleb
Dragon Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerfortniteMan
48% · 309 games55% · 127 games
Monkey Kingdualrazee
Monkey King
Lion
Lionkreker
53% · 243 games49% · 94 games
Sand KingInfernal
Sand King
Techies
Techiesdark
46% · 112 games47% · 121 game
Keeper of the Lightxsvampire
Keeper of the Light
44% · 230 games
TuskMary_y
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed27:39
Palianytsia 52%Dragon Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Palianytsia — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 43:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistCrystallize
59% · 225 games50% · 233 games
Lunalil pleb
Luna
Huskar
HuskarMoonlight
56% · 42 games46% · 207 games
Storm Spiritdualrazee
Storm Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterfortniteMan
50% · 227 games42% · 191 game
TimbersawInfernal
Timbersaw
Lion
Lionkreker
58% · 284 games48% · 145 games
Muertaxsvampire
Muerta
Phoenix
Phoenixdark
47% · 275 games44% · 277 games
ClockwerkMary_y
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoritePalianytsia · 54%
Series resultDragon Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2