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CCT Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Palianytsiawin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Palianytsia

Luna
Lunasignature
Crystallize · 10 games
90%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
QBFY · 10 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
QBFY · 9 games
78%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Moonlight · 9 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
fortniteMan · 7 games
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
QBFY · 6 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
kreker · 6 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
kreker · 5 games
60%

Nemiga Gaming

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
aik · 21 game
62%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Lukas · 17 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
jesv · 17 games
35%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
queezy · 17 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
jesv · 15 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
nicky`cool · 13 games
31%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
MikSa` · 12 games
50%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
MikSa` · 12 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
339 picks · 278 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
337 picks · 431 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
317 picks · 249 bans
45%
Enchantress
Enchantress
316 picks · 545 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
288 picks · 468 bans
46%
Windranger
Windranger
288 picks · 404 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
287 picks · 241 bans
54%
Sand King
Sand King
285 picks · 799 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 27%
Hero pool strength58% Palianytsia
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Palianytsia
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:11
Palianytsia 54%Nemiga Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Palianytsia — the game was taken by Palianytsia in 29:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaCrystallize
53% · 238 games49% · 326 games
Centaur WarrunnerMiyaoo
Centaur Warrunner
Timbersaw
TimbersawfortniteMan
52% · 220 games53% · 136 games
Invokerряф^^
Invoker
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMoonlight
48% · 135 games47% · 272 games
HoodwinkShishak
Hoodwink
Alchemist
Alchemistkreker
55% · 161 game47% · 231 game
Clockwerkantoha
Clockwerk
Snapfire
SnapfireQBFY
47% · 211 games
Game 2prediction correct29:7
Palianytsia 54%Nemiga Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Palianytsia — the game was taken by Palianytsia in 29:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendCrystallize
43% · 70 games63% · 110 games
Storm Spiritряф^^
Storm Spirit
Huskar
HuskarMoonlight
61% · 34 games46% · 166 games
MarsMiyaoo
Mars
Doom
DoomfortniteMan
48% · 162 games42% · 56 games
PugnaShishak
Pugna
Alchemist
Alchemistkreker
55% · 116 games45% · 196 games
Clockwerkantoha
Clockwerk
Snapfire
SnapfireQBFY
47% · 146 games
Model check result
Model favoritePalianytsia · 56%
Series resultPalianytsia 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2