?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 24 · BO2
result vs prediction
Palianytsialoss 0:2
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Palianytsia

Luna
Lunasignature
Crystallize · 15 games
73%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
QBFY · 14 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
QBFY · 14 games
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Moonlight · 13 games
54%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
kreker · 9 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
fortniteMan · 9 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 9 games
56%
Omniknight
Omniknightsignature
kreker · 8 games
75%

Talon Esports

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Ponyo · 13 games
46%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Akashi · 13 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Kuku · 12 games
42%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Jhocam · 12 games
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Jhocam · 10 games
70%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Akashi · 10 games
40%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 10 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Ws · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
352 picks · 319 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
348 picks · 469 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
330 picks · 462 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
303 picks · 590 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
303 picks · 174 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
275 picks · 333 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
267 picks · 440 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
248 picks · 357 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 39%
Hero pool strength52% Palianytsia
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:38
Palianytsia 31%Talon Esports 69%
The model gave 69% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 44:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaCrystallize
48% · 223 games58% · 120 games
Monkey KingAkashi
Monkey King
Primal Beast
Primal BeastfortniteMan
50% · 164 games48% · 125 games
BristlebackWs
Bristleback
Sand King
Sand KingMoonlight
50% · 116 games50% · 152 games
InvokerMikoto
Invoker
Alchemist
Alchemistkreker
53% · 144 games46% · 253 games
PhoenixKuku
Phoenix
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
47% · 185 games51% · 182 games
LionJhocam
Lion
Game 2prediction correct13:29
Palianytsia 32%Talon Esports 68%
The model gave 68% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 28:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCrystallize
46% · 264 games51% · 99 games
BristlebackWs
Bristleback
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMoonlight
51% · 74 games48% · 322 games
Dragon KnightAkashi
Dragon Knight
Primal Beast
Primal BeastfortniteMan
52% · 290 games54% · 158 games
Storm SpiritMikoto
Storm Spirit
Tusk
Tuskkreker
47% · 283 games49% · 275 games
EnchantressKuku
Enchantress
Lion
LionQBFY
54% · 185 games49% · 242 games
Dark WillowJhocam
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 83%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2