Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Paradox Esportsloss 0:2series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Lavawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Paradox Esports
Tiny
Pamplona · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
Benny · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
H1j4ck · 1 game
Ogre Magi
555k · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
Lissex · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Robo-Z · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
Benny · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
555k · 1 game
Lava
Dawnbreakersignature
JimmyCoff666 · 6 games
Clockwerk
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
Lich
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
416 picks · 426 bans
Tiny
402 picks · 384 bans
Rubick
400 picks · 271 bans
Mirana
304 picks · 311 bans
Treant Protector
266 picks · 316 bans
Snapfire
244 picks · 130 bans
Crystal Maiden
218 picks · 153 bans
Ember Spirit
215 picks · 582 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 69%
Hero pool strength60% Lava
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:32
Paradox Esports 32%Lava 68%
The model gave 68% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 45:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightLissex
DawnbreakerJimmyCoff666
Game 2prediction correct44:46
Paradox Esports 33%Lava 67%
The model gave 67% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 59:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarsLissex
UndyingJimmyCoff666
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 78%
Series resultLava 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2