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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Paradox Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
No Runeswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Paradox Esports

Tiny
Tiny
Pamplona · 2 games
0%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Benny · 1 game
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
H1j4ck · 1 game
0%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
555k · 1 game
0%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Robo-Z · 1 game
0%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Benny · 1 game
0%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
555k · 1 game
0%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
H1j4ck · 1 game
0%

No Runes

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Nuages · 3 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Nuages · 3 games
33%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Hyko · 2 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Mr.Jeans · 2 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Jupiter · 2 games
50%
Mirana
Miranaoften banned
Jupiter · 2 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mr.Jeans · 2 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
405 picks · 410 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
383 picks · 373 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
376 picks · 254 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
294 picks · 304 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
246 picks · 296 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
235 picks · 121 bans
48%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
210 picks · 150 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
201 picks · 558 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength60% No Runes
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Paradox Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:35
Paradox Esports 52%No Runes 48%
The model gave 52% on Paradox Esports — the game was taken by No Runes in 52:20.
Game 2prediction missed25:36
Paradox Esports 52%No Runes 48%
The model gave 52% on Paradox Esports — the game was taken by No Runes in 40:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteParadox Esports · 52%
Series resultNo Runes 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2