Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Paradox Esportsloss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Qhaliwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Paradox Esports
Primal Beastoften banned
Lissex · 5 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Arms · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Lissex · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Lissex · 2 games
Marcioften banned
Lissex · 2 games
Tiny
Pamplona · 2 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
CHAAANNN · 2 games
Weaveroften banned
Arms · 2 games
Qhali
Undyingoften banned
Luis · 7 games
Hoodwinksignature
MonHty · 6 games
Lycanoften banned
Hermit · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 4 games
Linaoften banned
Cucahook · 4 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Luis · 4 games
Visageoften banned
Hermit · 4 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Hermit · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
677 picks · 430 bans
Tusk
583 picks · 543 bans
Tiny
559 picks · 443 bans
Treant Protector
485 picks · 542 bans
Mirana
391 picks · 383 bans
Snapfire
384 picks · 209 bans
Death Prophet
346 picks · 531 bans
Nature's Prophet
342 picks · 492 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 60%
Hero pool strength59% Qhali
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Qhali
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:35
Paradox Esports 36%Qhali 64%
The model gave 64% on Qhali — the game was taken by Qhali in 39:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarciLissex
LinaCucahook
SilencerCHAAANNN
Ember SpiritRobo-Z
54% · 27 games
BrewmasterHermit
44% · 42 games
Skywrath MageMonHty
62% · 93 games
Treant ProtectorLuis
Game 2prediction correct21:32
Paradox Esports 37%Qhali 63%
The model gave 63% on Qhali — the game was taken by Qhali in 48:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarsLissex
LinaCucahook
DawnbreakerCHAAANNN
PangolierRobo-Z
59% · 51 game
LycanHermit
43% · 111 games
RubickMonHty
61% · 20 games
OmniknightLuis
Model check result
Model favoriteQhali · 70%
Series resultQhali 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2