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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Paradox Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ukumariwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Paradox Esports

Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Lissex · 4 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Arms · 3 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Lissex · 2 games
0%
Tiny
Tiny
Pamplona · 2 games
0%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
CHAAANNN · 2 games
100%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Arms · 2 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Benny · 1 game
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Lissex · 1 game
0%

Ukumari

Undying
Undyingsignature
Gardick · 21 game
62%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Gardick · 18 games
61%
Puck
Puckoften banned
4nalog · 18 games
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Vitaly · 17 games
47%
Marci
Marcisignature
Thiolicor · 17 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
Thiolicor · 16 games
56%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Lumière · 15 games
47%
Tiny
Tiny
Thiolicor · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
638 picks · 417 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
558 picks · 532 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
543 picks · 434 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
450 picks · 529 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
383 picks · 384 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
370 picks · 204 bans
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
326 picks · 214 bans
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
326 picks · 498 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 30%
Hero pool strength58% Ukumari
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Paradox Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:54
Paradox Esports 55%Ukumari 45%
The model gave 55% on Paradox Esports — the game was taken by Ukumari in 43:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaArms
54% · 275 games43% · 60 games
SniperJP
Sniper
Beastmaster
BeastmasterLissex
54% · 274 games39% · 114 games
Ember SpiritAlone
Ember Spirit
52% · 35 games
Centaur WarrunnerH1j4ck
Centaur Warrunner
44% · 143 games
ClockwerkYor
Clockwerk
51% · 197 games
RubickKiri
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct54:39
Paradox Esports 55%Ukumari 45%
The model gave 55% on Paradox Esports — the game was taken by Paradox Esports in 59:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerArms
45% · 101 game51% · 32 games
Monkey KingJP
Monkey King
Primal Beast
Primal BeastLissex
58% · 199 games54% · 59 games
Ember SpiritAlone
Ember Spirit
43% · 30 games
TimbersawH1j4ck
Timbersaw
52% · 124 games
TinyKiri
Tiny
42% · 55 games
DisruptorYor
Disruptor
Game 3prediction missed25:27
Paradox Esports 54%Ukumari 46%
The model gave 54% on Paradox Esports — the game was taken by Ukumari in 35:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaArms
48% · 133 games53% · 90 games
TerrorbladeJP
Terrorblade
Marci
MarciLissex
49% · 287 gameslittle data
Bounty HunterAlone
Bounty Hunter
51% · 136 games
Death ProphetH1j4ck
Death Prophet
56% · 92 games
Treant ProtectorYor
Treant Protector
48% · 102 games
ClockwerkKiri
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteParadox Esports · 60%
Series resultUkumari 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3