ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
PARI PARNIloss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PARI PARNI
No games played over 6 months.
Natus Vincere
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
swedenstrong · 9 games
Puckoften banned
No[o]ne · 9 games
Clockwerk
Solo · 7 games
Enchantresssignature
Solo · 7 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
laise · 6 games
Lifestealersignature
V-Tune · 6 games
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 6 games
Abaddonoften banned
Solo · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
613 picks · 463 bans
Puck
428 picks · 932 bans
Mars
363 picks · 586 bans
Snapfire
361 picks · 185 bans
Dawnbreaker
345 picks · 399 bans
Dragon Knight
339 picks · 459 bans
Bane
319 picks · 197 bans
Ember Spirit
304 picks · 586 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:37
PARI PARNI 48%Natus Vincere 52%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 37:51.
Game 2prediction correct0:0
PARI PARNI 48%Natus Vincere 52%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 52:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 52%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2