Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
PARI PARNIloss 0:2series probability
10%90%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PARI PARNI
No games played over 6 months.
Virtus.pro
Banesignature
Xakoda · 13 games
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 13 games
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 10 games
Queen of Painoften banned
gpK~ · 10 games
Beastmastersignature
DM · 9 games
Grimstroke
Xakoda · 8 games
Kunkkasignature
Pure~ · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
501 picks · 445 bans
Mars
488 picks · 689 bans
Bane
461 picks · 284 bans
Dragon Knight
438 picks · 522 bans
Sand King
410 picks · 563 bans
Storm Spirit
400 picks · 645 bans
Pangolier
373 picks · 609 bans
Grimstroke
359 picks · 312 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 52%
Hero pool strength57% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:23
PARI PARNI 10%Virtus.pro 90%
The model gave 90% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 37:35.
Game 2prediction correct37:30
PARI PARNI 10%Virtus.pro 90%
The model gave 90% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 55:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 90%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2