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BLAST Slam VIII · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:1
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:1
1w Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
9Class · 28 games
79%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 28 games
89%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Noticed · 27 games
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 24 games
75%
Kez
Kezsignature
Satanic · 23 games
87%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 22 games
73%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Dukalis · 21 game
76%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
9Class · 20 games
85%

1w Team

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 45 games
49%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Whitemon · 21 game
57%
Kez
Kezsignature
Pure~ · 19 games
68%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 19 games
42%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
bzm · 18 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
bzm · 17 games
71%
Techies
Techies
Whitemon · 17 games
47%
Venomancer
Venomancersignature
Rein · 17 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
524 picks · 317 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
440 picks · 211 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
391 picks · 177 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
339 picks · 305 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
327 picks · 505 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
311 picks · 293 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
288 picks · 512 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
277 picks · 137 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 47%
Hero pool strength63% PARIVISION
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total86% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:29
PARIVISION 71%1w Team 29%
The model gave 71% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by 1w Team in 44:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Io
IoSatanic
52% · 71 game47% · 84 games
AlchemistPure~
Alchemist
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
52% · 388 games55% · 183 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Slardar
SlardarNoticed
47% · 287 games48% · 135 games
Brewmaster33
Brewmaster
Windranger
Windranger9Class
50% · 344 games49% · 674 games
HoodwinkAri
Hoodwink
Disruptor
DisruptorDukalis
43% · 190 games57% · 204 games
Winter WyvernWhitemon
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct40:20
PARIVISION 73%1w Team 27%
The model gave 73% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 49:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageSatanic
58% · 12 games54% · 109 games
LunaPure~
Luna
Tidehunter
TidehunterNoticed
52% · 106 games45% · 33 games
Earthshakerbzm
Earthshaker
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNo[o]ne
47% · 108 games46% · 102 games
Brewmaster33
Brewmaster
Rubick
Rubick9Class
52% · 135 games47% · 72 games
Witch DoctorWhitemon
Witch Doctor
Techies
TechiesDukalis
53% · 119 games50% · 164 games
Dark WillowAri
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct0:0
PARIVISION 72%1w Team 28%
The model gave 72% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 38:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSatanic
47% · 143 games45% · 79 games
Templar AssassinPure~
Templar Assassin
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNo[o]ne
46% · 50 games57% · 203 games
Timbersaw33
Timbersaw
Slardar
SlardarNoticed
47% · 276 games51% · 322 games
Tinybzm
Tiny
Rubick
Rubick9Class
52% · 291 game49% · 151 game
Keeper of the LightAri
Keeper of the Light
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernDukalis
51% · 185 games52% · 190 games
TechiesWhitemon
Techies
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 86%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3