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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6 · BO2
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 1:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 35 games
74%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 28 games
68%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Dukalis · 25 games
76%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 24 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 24 games
75%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
DM · 22 games
77%
Slark
Slarksignature
9Class · 21 game
81%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 21 game
67%

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 39 games
51%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mira · 34 games
59%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 33 games
76%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Mira · 32 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 24 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
61%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 23 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
556 picks · 582 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
382 picks · 224 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
371 picks · 424 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
341 picks · 335 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
333 picks · 495 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
327 picks · 859 bans
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
321 picks · 683 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
306 picks · 863 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 53%
Hero pool strength56% PARIVISION
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total64% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:36
PARIVISION 57%Aurora Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 44:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSatanic
54% · 189 games46% · 119 games
Nature's ProphetNightfall
Nature's Prophet
Phoenix
PhoenixDM
55% · 267 games52% · 258 games
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
Storm Spirit
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNo[o]ne
49% · 146 games51% · 245 games
DawnbreakerTORONTOTOKYO
Dawnbreaker
Disruptor
DisruptorDukalis
49% · 140 games45% · 363 games
BatriderMira
Batrider
Clockwerk
Clockwerk9Class
52% · 308 games45% · 65 games
BanePanto
Bane
Game 2prediction correct23:9
PARIVISION 58%Aurora Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 23:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSatanic
51% · 223 games48% · 186 games
DoomNightfall
Doom
Enigma
EnigmaDM
58% · 157 games48% · 132 games
Queen of PainTORONTOTOKYO
Queen of Pain
Sand King
Sand KingNo[o]ne
51% · 220 games50% · 208 games
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
Storm Spirit
Rubick
Rubick9Class
47% · 112 games47% · 134 games
PugnaPanto
Pugna
Enchantress
EnchantressDukalis
55% · 231 game45% · 283 games
TuskMira
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 64%
Accuracy by game1 of 2