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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 1:2
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 28 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 23 games
43%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 21 game
62%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Satanic · 19 games
68%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
DM · 17 games
76%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 17 games
71%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
No[o]ne · 17 games
65%
Puck
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 17 games
82%

Aurora Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 32 games
66%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 31 game
48%
Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 30 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Mira · 29 games
62%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 25 games
72%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 24 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
kiyotaka · 23 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
654 picks · 321 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
563 picks · 568 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
413 picks · 221 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
404 picks · 1153 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
376 picks · 631 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
356 picks · 398 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
356 picks · 263 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
353 picks · 158 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% PARIVISION
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total73% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:31
PARIVISION 61%Aurora Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 52:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNo[o]ne
51% · 430 games56% · 219 games
GyrocopterNightfall
Gyrocopter
Kez
KezSatanic
little data50% · 216 games
PangolierMikoto
Pangolier
Underlord
UnderlordDM
39% · 90 games47% · 118 games
DoomTORONTOTOKYO
Doom
Enchantress
EnchantressDukalis
47% · 226 games61% · 77 games
Naga SirenOli
Naga Siren
Techies
Techies9Class
50% · 29 games55% · 145 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct27:9
PARIVISION 62%Aurora Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 40:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSatanic
40% · 181 game59% · 37 games
Anti-MageNightfall
Anti-Mage
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNo[o]ne
46% · 202 games56% · 169 games
TidehunterTORONTOTOKYO
Tidehunter
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDM
46% · 131 game46% · 404 games
PuckMikoto
Puck
Void Spirit
Void Spirit9Class
46% · 223 games56% · 240 games
SnapfireMira
Snapfire
Jakiro
JakiroDukalis
44% · 250 games63% · 137 games
Naga SirenOli
Naga Siren
Game 3prediction missed14:26
PARIVISION 64%Aurora Gaming 36%
The model gave 64% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 47:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSatanic
47% · 175 games43% · 169 games
SvenNightfall
Sven
Pudge
PudgeNo[o]ne
57% · 70 games51% · 125 games
TimbersawTORONTOTOKYO
Timbersaw
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDM
51% · 170 games47% · 327 games
PuckMikoto
Puck
Void Spirit
Void Spirit9Class
53% · 243 games61% · 99 games
ChenOli
Chen
Pugna
PugnaDukalis
47% · 224 games47% · 162 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 73%
Series resultAurora Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3