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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 24 games
79%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 22 games
45%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 22 games
64%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 21 game
81%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 21 game
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 20 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 20 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 19 games
53%

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 45 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 38 games
61%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 37 games
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 33 games
52%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 31 game
71%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 27 games
48%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 27 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Smiling Knight · 26 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
518 picks · 790 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
508 picks · 613 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
497 picks · 510 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
470 picks · 572 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
441 picks · 374 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
434 picks · 1003 bans
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
418 picks · 783 bans
56%
Bristleback
Bristleback
392 picks · 898 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% PARIVISION
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total74% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:27
PARIVISION 60%AVULUS 40%
The model gave 60% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 1:06:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerSatanic
48% · 41 game55% · 108 games
MedusaSmiling Knight
Medusa
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDM
46% · 356 games63% · 191 game
Monkey KingStormstormer
Monkey King
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
53% · 306 games48% · 345 games
PangolierXibbe
Pangolier
Enchantress
Enchantress9Class
45% · 313 games49% · 306 games
BatriderEkki
Batrider
Abaddon
AbaddonDukalis
39% · 62 games55% · 128 games
Elder TitanSoNNeikO
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct35:15
PARIVISION 63%AVULUS 37%
The model gave 63% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 36:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSatanic
46% · 197 games52% · 168 games
AlchemistSmiling Knight
Alchemist
Puck
PuckNo[o]ne
51% · 336 games55% · 109 games
EarthshakerStormstormer
Earthshaker
Abaddon
AbaddonDM
45% · 64 games50% · 364 games
PangolierXibbe
Pangolier
Enchantress
Enchantress9Class
49% · 284 games49% · 342 games
BatriderEkki
Batrider
Pugna
PugnaDukalis
51% · 241 game51% · 139 games
LichSoNNeikO
Lich
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 74%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2