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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 30 games
77%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 27 games
70%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 26 games
69%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 24 games
67%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 23 games
83%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 22 games
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 21 game
67%
Tusk
Tusk
9Class · 21 game
57%

BOOM Esports

Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 26 games
65%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Tims · 23 games
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Mac · 23 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 22 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Fbz · 20 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jaunuel · 18 games
72%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Mac · 17 games
65%
Doom
Doomsignature
Fbz · 16 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
505 picks · 685 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
433 picks · 703 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
423 picks · 410 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
414 picks · 321 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
373 picks · 867 bans
58%
Magnus
Magnus
371 picks · 965 bans
58%
Batrider
Batrider
367 picks · 425 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
367 picks · 506 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% PARIVISION
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:4
PARIVISION 74%BOOM Esports 26%
The model gave 74% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 23:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSatanic
50% · 66 games38% · 131 game
Phantom AssassinJaCkky
Phantom Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
54% · 217 games51% · 55 games
AbaddonJabz
Abaddon
Enigma
EnigmaDM
59% · 139 games47% · 181 game
PuckArmel
Puck
Pugna
PugnaDukalis
52% · 84 games47% · 204 games
RubickTims
Rubick
Magnus
Magnus9Class
57% · 201 game44% · 136 games
JakiroJaunuel
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct21:14
PARIVISION 71%BOOM Esports 29%
The model gave 71% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 42:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinSatanic
35% · 138 games53% · 234 games
MagnusJaCkky
Magnus
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNo[o]ne
48% · 256 games48% · 294 games
Dragon KnightArmel
Dragon Knight
Enigma
EnigmaDM
59% · 140 games55% · 172 games
DoomJabz
Doom
Warlock
WarlockDukalis
40% · 96 games63% · 80 games
MiranaTims
Mirana
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit9Class
45% · 178 games45% · 28 games
TechiesJaunuel
Techies
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 86%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2