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BLAST Slam I · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Heroicloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
DM · 16 games
63%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 15 games
53%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 14 games
79%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 13 games
77%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
9Class · 11 games
73%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 11 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 11 games
45%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
DM · 11 games
55%

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
KJ · 28 games
71%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 21 game
62%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Scofield · 21 game
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 19 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Scofield · 19 games
58%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Parker · 17 games
76%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
K1 · 15 games
67%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
506 picks · 687 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
431 picks · 486 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
373 picks · 533 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
356 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
350 picks · 180 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
327 picks · 474 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
324 picks · 633 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
319 picks · 327 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% Heroic
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:35
PARIVISION 56%Heroic 44%
The model gave 56% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Heroic in 1:00:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerCrystallis
51% · 27 games53% · 187 games
Dragon KnightYuma
Dragon Knight
Sniper
SniperNo[o]ne
55% · 135 games54% · 136 games
TimbersawDavai
Timbersaw
Magnus
MagnusDM
58% · 176 games50% · 22 games
Huskar4nalog
Huskar
Muerta
Muerta9Class
43% · 177 games42% · 156 games
EnchantressKJ
Enchantress
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritPanto
46% · 156 games50% · 170 games
LionScofield
Lion
Game 2prediction correct35:11
PARIVISION 56%Heroic 44%
The model gave 56% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 29:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorCrystallis
44% · 196 games49% · 199 games
Primal BeastDavai
Primal Beast
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
58% · 238 games50% · 32 games
SlarkYuma
Slark
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeDM
48% · 104 games49% · 122 games
Earth Spirit4nalog
Earth Spirit
Muerta
Muerta9Class
46% · 140 games50% · 243 games
EnchantressKJ
Enchantress
Pugna
PugnaPanto
49% · 173 games55% · 255 games
BatriderScofield
Batrider
Game 3prediction correct23:31
PARIVISION 55%Heroic 45%
The model gave 55% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 41:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCrystallis
49% · 235 games49% · 317 games
MarsDavai
Mars
Tiny
TinyNo[o]ne
52% · 331 game49% · 90 games
Earth Spirit4nalog
Earth Spirit
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeDM
47% · 131 game53% · 197 games
MagnusYuma
Magnus
Techies
Techies9Class
50% · 151 game49% · 273 games
PhoenixKJ
Phoenix
Pugna
PugnaPanto
53% · 180 games50% · 151 game
MuertaScofield
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 61%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3