The International 2025 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PARIVISION
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 31 game
Ringmastersignature
Dukalis · 26 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 25 games
Ember Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 25 games
Storm Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 22 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Dukalis · 20 games
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 20 games
Kunkkasignature
No[o]ne · 20 games
Heroic
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 26 games
Kunkkaoften banned
4nalog · 18 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 17 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 15 games
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 15 games
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 15 games
Phoenix
KJ · 15 games
Beastmastersignature
4nalog · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
450 picks · 419 bans
Dark Willow
365 picks · 195 bans
Tusk
341 picks · 348 bans
Puck
327 picks · 806 bans
Batrider
320 picks · 851 bans
Pangolier
285 picks · 398 bans
Tiny
285 picks · 229 bans
Nature's Prophet
282 picks · 534 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 54%
Hero pool strength57% PARIVISION
Head-to-head6 – 0
Model total86% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:37
PARIVISION 72%Heroic 28%
The model gave 72% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 1:05:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinkerSatanic
BristlebackWisper
PuckNo[o]ne
Slardar4nalog
BeastmasterDM
Monkey KingYuma
SnapfireDukalis
BatriderScofield
Alchemist9Class
UndyingKJ
Game 2prediction correct27:15
PARIVISION 73%Heroic 27%
The model gave 73% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 35:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainNo[o]ne
Nature's ProphetYuma
LycanDM
Kunkka4nalog
Monkey KingSatanic
PudgeWisper
SnapfireDukalis
EnchantressKJ
Alchemist9Class
Nyx AssassinScofield
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 86%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2