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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Heroicloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 21 game
43%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 20 games
60%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 20 games
70%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Satanic · 15 games
60%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
80%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 15 games
47%
Puck
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 14 games
71%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 13 games
85%

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 25 games
68%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 24 games
46%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 21 game
62%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Yuma · 20 games
45%
Puck
Puckoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
58%
Axe
Axe
Davai · 18 games
44%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Wisper · 18 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
773 picks · 354 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
589 picks · 297 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
551 picks · 548 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
543 picks · 428 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
537 picks · 641 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
500 picks · 300 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
484 picks · 743 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
466 picks · 530 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% PARIVISION
Head-to-head6 – 0
Model total64% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:44
PARIVISION 56%Heroic 44%
The model gave 56% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Heroic in 1:11:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerSatanic
43% · 29 games51% · 88 games
InvokerWisper
Invoker
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNo[o]ne
50% · 304 games52% · 243 games
TerrorbladeYuma
Terrorblade
Underlord
UnderlordDM
47% · 76 games50% · 205 games
MarsDavai
Mars
Batrider
Batrider9Class
49% · 327 games50% · 175 games
PugnaKJ
Pugna
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageDukalis
52% · 51 game56% · 76 games
Nyx AssassinScofield
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct35:20
PARIVISION 57%Heroic 43%
The model gave 57% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 1:03:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordSatanic
48% · 122 games49% · 208 games
UrsaYuma
Ursa
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNo[o]ne
56% · 269 games52% · 138 games
Primal BeastDavai
Primal Beast
Axe
AxeDM
44% · 196 games48% · 292 games
PuckWisper
Puck
Chen
ChenDukalis
58% · 242 games53% · 233 games
JakiroScofield
Jakiro
Marci
Marci9Class
48% · 232 games44% · 190 games
PugnaKJ
Pugna
Game 3prediction correct34:8
PARIVISION 60%Heroic 40%
The model gave 60% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 26:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSatanic
57% · 93 games44% · 236 games
Templar AssassinYuma
Templar Assassin
Timbersaw
TimbersawDM
42% · 158 games49% · 157 games
InvokerWisper
Invoker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
52% · 220 games58% · 131 game
Primal BeastDavai
Primal Beast
Snapfire
SnapfireDukalis
50% · 229 games44% · 83 games
Skywrath MageScofield
Skywrath Mage
Monkey King
Monkey King9Class
55% · 185 games49% · 278 games
PugnaKJ
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 64%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3