BLAST Slam VI. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PARIVISION
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 23 games
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 22 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 19 games
Queen of Painsignature
No[o]ne · 17 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 16 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Satanic · 16 games
Invokersignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 15 games
HULIGANI
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 36 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 34 games
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 32 games
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 32 games
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 29 games
Snapfire
RESPECT · 28 games
Tusksignature
slimeyao · 27 games
Warlock
RESPECT · 27 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
582 picks · 631 bans
Tusk
511 picks · 328 bans
Dragon Knight
500 picks · 687 bans
Snapfire
484 picks · 186 bans
Centaur Warrunner
443 picks · 530 bans
Hoodwink
441 picks · 222 bans
Mars
395 picks · 543 bans
Pangolier
380 picks · 535 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% PARIVISION
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:19
PARIVISION 71%HULIGANI 29%
The model gave 71% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 40:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzSatanic
Shadow Fiendv1olent-
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
Tinyerase
TimbersawDM
OmniknightBb3px
Keeper of the Light9Class
Shadow Demonslimeyao
ClockwerkDukalis
JakiroRESPECT
Game 2prediction correct25:13
PARIVISION 68%HULIGANI 32%
The model gave 68% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 34:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezSatanic
Weaverv1olent-
Dragon KnightNo[o]ne
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Dark SeerDM
Ember Spiriterase
ChenDukalis
Tinyslimeyao
Marci9Class
Skywrath MageRESPECT
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 86%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2