ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HULIGANIloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PARIVISION
Slardarsignature
SSS · 27 games
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 25 games
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 22 games
Kezsignature
Satanic · 21 game
Beastmastersignature
No[o]ne · 20 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 20 games
Phoenixsignature
Dukalis · 18 games
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 17 games
HULIGANI
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 43 games
Slardaroften banned
Bb3px · 40 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 39 games
Hoodwink
sayuw · 39 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 36 games
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 36 games
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 34 games
Tusk
slimeyao · 33 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
511 picks · 277 bans
Phoenix
482 picks · 565 bans
Tiny
443 picks · 352 bans
Jakiro
442 picks · 346 bans
Tusk
378 picks · 326 bans
Beastmaster
348 picks · 836 bans
Puck
345 picks · 840 bans
Rubick
333 picks · 176 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 61%
Hero pool strength51% PARIVISION
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total90% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:12
PARIVISION 74%HULIGANI 26%
The model gave 74% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 32:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinySatanic
Monkey Kingssnovv1
Queen of PainNo[o]ne
InvokerMirage
DawnbreakerNoticed
Sand KingCorrupted
SnapfireDukalis
Ringmastersayuw
Rubick9Class
EnchantressRESPECT
Game 2prediction correct26:16
PARIVISION 73%HULIGANI 27%
The model gave 73% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 42:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinySatanic
Windrangerssnovv1
Queen of PainNo[o]ne
UnderlordCorrupted
Huskar9Class
Ember SpiritMirage
SlardarNoticed
PhoenixRESPECT
ChenDukalis
Clockwerksayuw
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 90%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2