?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 26 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 20 games
70%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 19 games
84%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No[o]ne · 17 games
53%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 16 games
44%
Invoker
Invokersignature
No[o]ne · 16 games
75%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Satanic · 16 games
38%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
60%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 73 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 55 games
53%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 48 games
54%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 45 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 43 games
60%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 41 game
71%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 40 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 37 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
629 picks · 1000 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
521 picks · 446 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
460 picks · 505 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
452 picks · 1073 bans
56%
Warlock
Warlock
452 picks · 288 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
450 picks · 630 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
422 picks · 593 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
410 picks · 499 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% PARIVISION
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:11
PARIVISION 52%MOUZ 48%
The model gave 52% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 32:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSatanic
48% · 234 games50% · 194 games
TimbersawBOOM
Timbersaw
Largo
LargoSSS
56% · 68 games48% · 230 games
BristlebackCrystallis
Bristleback
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNo[o]ne
46% · 162 games53% · 174 games
Primal BeastMidOne
Primal Beast
Warlock
WarlockDukalis
47% · 270 games55% · 207 games
ChenSeleri
Chen
Dark Willow
Dark Willow9Class
45% · 144 games54% · 73 games
Lionyamich
Lion
Game 2prediction correct34:28
PARIVISION 51%MOUZ 49%
The model gave 51% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 40:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherSatanic
55% · 57 games59% · 85 games
EarthshakerMidOne
Earthshaker
Largo
LargoSSS
45% · 84 games55% · 62 games
HuskarCrystallis
Huskar
Razor
RazorNo[o]ne
46% · 109 games53% · 246 games
MarsBOOM
Mars
Warlock
WarlockDukalis
47% · 417 games52% · 144 games
ChenSeleri
Chen
Dark Willow
Dark Willow9Class
45% · 250 games48% · 380 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 54%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2