BLAST Slam VI. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 1:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PARIVISION
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 23 games
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 22 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 19 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 17 games
Queen of Painsignature
No[o]ne · 17 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Satanic · 16 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 16 games
Invokersignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
Natus Vincere
Disruptor
Riddys · 26 games
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
Warlocksignature
Riddys · 21 game
Dazzle
Riddys · 19 games
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 18 games
Pangoliersignature
pma · 18 games
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
562 picks · 644 bans
Tusk
503 picks · 327 bans
Dragon Knight
489 picks · 682 bans
Snapfire
453 picks · 166 bans
Centaur Warrunner
443 picks · 528 bans
Hoodwink
428 picks · 203 bans
Mars
392 picks · 525 bans
Gyrocopter
371 picks · 497 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% PARIVISION
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:11
PARIVISION 64%Natus Vincere 36%
The model gave 64% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 21:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenSatanic
Pugnagotthejuice
Centaur WarrunnerDM
Enigmapma
ViperNo[o]ne
KezNiku
Slark9Class
JakiroRiddys
MiranaDukalis
TinyZayac
Game 2prediction missed16:29
PARIVISION 59%Natus Vincere 41%
The model gave 59% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 44:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautSatanic
Ursagotthejuice
SlardarDM
Ember SpiritNiku
TinyNo[o]ne
Tidehunterpma
Tinker9Class
JakiroRiddys
DisruptorDukalis
Treant ProtectorZayac
Game 3prediction missed24:21
PARIVISION 62%Natus Vincere 38%
The model gave 62% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 39:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinSatanic
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
Centaur WarrunnerDM
Storm SpiritNiku
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
Underlordpma
WarlockDukalis
JakiroRiddys
Monkey King9Class
LionZayac
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 70%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3