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BLAST Slam VII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 24 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 23 games
61%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 20 games
80%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No[o]ne · 19 games
53%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
No[o]ne · 19 games
53%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 17 games
41%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
41%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
60%

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 35 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 25 games
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 23 games
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 21 game
52%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pma · 21 game
43%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Niku · 20 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 19 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Niku · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
683 picks · 841 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
572 picks · 567 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
504 picks · 424 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
474 picks · 333 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
418 picks · 1151 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
409 picks · 687 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
399 picks · 620 bans
48%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
394 picks · 1028 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% PARIVISION
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total67% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:7
PARIVISION 60%Natus Vincere 40%
The model gave 60% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 29:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoSatanic
54% · 7 games50% · 114 games
Monkey Kinggotthejuice
Monkey King
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSSS
50% · 269 games47% · 164 games
PangolierNiku
Pangolier
Razor
RazorNo[o]ne
54% · 80 games47% · 30 games
Elder Titanpma
Elder Titan
Phoenix
PhoenixDukalis
50% · 158 games50% · 134 games
Dark WillowDaze
Dark Willow
Rubick
Rubick9Class
50% · 82 games50% · 154 games
DisruptorRiddys
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct30:17
PARIVISION 60%Natus Vincere 40%
The model gave 60% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 41:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingSatanic
52% · 153 games49% · 133 games
Templar Assassingotthejuice
Templar Assassin
Weaver
WeaverNo[o]ne
55% · 71 game52% · 87 games
Keeper of the LightNiku
Keeper of the Light
Tidehunter
TidehunterSSS
51% · 120 games49% · 100 games
Dawnbreakerpma
Dawnbreaker
Leshrac
Leshrac9Class
46% · 123 games47% · 34 games
VenomancerRiddys
Venomancer
Oracle
OracleDukalis
44% · 28 games51% · 141 game
MarciDaze
Marci
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 67%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2